Due to the large number of immigrants, Croatia's population will soon mirror the pattern seen in Austria or Germany, according to a local demographer, who pointed out that Zagreb has no other viable alternative to maintain its functioning pension and healthcare systems.

They are paid less, but cost more overall

„You either work for the money they offer, or someone else will be hired to replace you,”

says Tado Juric, pointing out that this is the policy pursued in Croatia. The demographer recalled that the same phenomenon was observed in Germany in the 1960s. This is how the country managed to hire enough workforce and silence trade unions. In Mr Juric’s view, as the outcome of this process, the local population leaves the country and immigrants come in to replace them.

The expert called it absurd that the state is almost encouraging young people to leave the country, while opening its doors to seemingly cheap labour from Asia, and Africa. However, it is not at all certain that on the whole, foreign workforce is cheaper for the country, he emphasized.

He drew attention to a German study published earlier that highlights that the integration of workers from distant countries costs more than the economic gains they generate. Taking in and employing foreigners only encourages the local youth to leave behind their country, the demographer added.

Hundreds of thousands to end up without GPs

Croatia’s economy is in bad need of new labour force. The country’s population is shrinking, young people are moving abroad and, as a consequence, there are fewer and fewer people who would work in factories or in agriculture, let alone tourism, a sector suffering from chronic labour shortages year after year. There is also a massive need for specialists.

At the moment, the shortage of doctors is the most pressing problem. Croatia’s general practitioner system has 2,327 teams, but only 2,187 doctors, which means that doctors are missing in 140 places.

Natasa Ban Toskic, head of Croatia’s GP coordination scheme, said the missing specialists are being substituted by existing ones, who are basically permanent substitutes, but this also means that the system can’t ensure reliable availability and continuity of care for patients.

Ms Ban Toskic also pointed out that there are some 200 doctors aged over 65, and in many cases it boils down to their conscience and goodwill whether they wish to continue with their duties. She stressed that

the shortage will soon grow to more than 300, putting the GP coverage of up to half a million insured people at risk. In the next few years, another 770 doctors will reach retirement age. If they cannot be replaced, it could leave hundreds of thousands of people without a GP.

Croatian health workers have been dissatisfied for years. In particular, they claim that their wages are lower than those of their Slovenian and even Serbian colleagues. An earlier survey found that 97 per cent of doctors asked were dissatisfied with the state of the health service. Besides the low wages, they also complained about receiving the minimal remuneration for being on night calls, the lack of investment in the training of young people and the fact that replacing expatriates is extra work for those who decide to stay.

Doctors and nurses in Croatia have called a strike to be held on 18 March.