Could the U.S. Drift to the Brink of Civil War by 2035?

A professor working at University of California's Santa Barbara campus has warned that California may attempt to secede from the United States within the next decade — a move that, he says, could spark civil war.

English NAGYVILÁG 2025. JÚLIUS 11. 12:26

In a recent analysis, political economist Benjamin Cohen stated that the risk of American political polarization reaching a crisis point is “significantly greater than zero,” and even the outbreak of a civil war is not out of the question.

Could the United States drift to the brink of civil war by 2035? (Photo: AFP)

Cohen outlined a scenario in which, by 2035, California declares independence due to escalating tensions between the state and the federal government — a development that, he argues, could provoke a dramatic reaction from Washington. In a fictional news report set in this hypothetical future, Cohen envisions a situation where the headlines read:

“J.D. Vance, with the support of the National Guard from nearby Republican states, threatens a military coup against the state government in Sacramento. Armed conflict appears increasingly likely.”

According to this imagined dispatch, the current vice president, J.D. Vance, is by then President of the United States.

Cohen argued that while the idea of states seceding may seem far-fetched, the growing political and cultural divisions across the country are fuelling so-called “dream state” movements that prioritize ideological goals over national unity, as reported by The Post Millennial news outlet.

“Identity can be a very powerful motivator,” Cohen said, adding: “That’s why I worry about the risk of civil war. When it comes to something as powerful as the sense of communal identity, rationalism tends to take a back seat.”

Tensions are high between Trump administration and California’s Democratic leadership

In recent months, tensions have escalated between the federal Republican-led Trump administration and the Democratic leadership of the state of California. The Democrat-led state is currently pursuing around two dozen lawsuits against various policies and actions taken by the Trump administration. The Trump administration sued California on Wednesday for allegedly

violating federal law with policies that allow transgender student athletes to compete on school sports teams that align with their gender identities.

In mid-June, California filed a lawsuit after Donald Trump had overturned state regulations that had mandated the exclusive sale of electric vehicles. Governor Gavin Newsom also challenged in court the federal government’s decision to deploy the National Guard and Marine Corps to quell the riots in Los Angeles and to protect federal facilities.

It is worth recalling that in June, protests took place over several days in Los Angeles and other major U.S. cities, in response to a series of federal actions targeting illegal immigrants. However, these demonstrations repeatedly descended into violent riots.

Protesters engaged in vandalism, arson, smashed shop windows, looted stores, and even attacked police officers.

Could a civil war break out?

Although a majority of Americans believe it is unlikely that another civil war will erupt in the United States by 2029, a significant portion of the population still sees it as a possibility. According to a public opinion survey conducted last year by Rasmussen Reports,

41 percent of American voters said they believed a second civil war was likely to break out in the United States within the next five years (by 2029). Of those, 16 percent considered this scenario very likely.

By contrast, 49 percent of respondents said they believed such an outcome was unlikely.

English NAGYVILÁG

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