In Germany, France, Austria, and even in Britain, sovereigntist parties – i.e. right-wing forces that defy the liberal mainstream – are now in the lead. They are no longer simply just growing in strength; these are now the most popular parties. But what's the explainion for this rise, and can these forces actually make it into government?

Germany’s right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has overtaken the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in a new poll by the Forsa Institute for Social Research and Statistical Analysis, published on 12 August. According to the results, Alice Wiedel’ party leads with 26 percent, two points ahead of the CDU on 24 percent.

AfD last surpassed the CDU in April, during coalition negotiations with the Social Democrats (SPD), but the current gap is the widest since the snap elections in February 2025. According to POLITICO Brussels, the Forsa poll suggests that Chancellor Friedrich Merz, while focusing on foreign policy issues such as the war in Ukraine and Europe’s relations with the United States under President Donald Trump, is facing growing discontent at home. 67 per cent of Germans said they were ‘not happy’ with his performance after 100 days in office. As V4NA also highlighted,

fifty-nine percent of Germans said they were “not satisfied” with his performance after 100 days in office.

‼️26%: Neuer Rekord für AfD‼️https://t.co/4BpKLk3mCf 💙🇩🇪

⚡️ Bei einer aktuellen Umfrage hat die AfD mit 26% einen neuen Rekord erzielt – und die CDU nebenbei noch überholt. Die anderen Altparteien brauchen schon ein Fernglas, um uns zu sehen. Wahrheit und eine vernünftige… pic.twitter.com/XWOfeiZNBf

— Christian Abel AfD (@erdbeerbuegler) August 13, 2025

The trend is mirrored elsewhere in Europe. In Austria, the right-wing Freedom Party (FPO), led by Herbert Kickl — co-founder of the Patriots for Europe (PfE) alliance, alongside Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban — continues to dominate polling.

According to PolitPro’s aggregation, FPO leads by more than 10 points in every credible survey, standing at 34–35 percent, compared to the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) on 21–22 percent.

Austria’s parliamentary elections in September 2024 saw FPO win the largest share of the vote, but the coalition talks with OVP had failed, resulting in a government formed by OVP, the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO) and the liberal NEOS, according to the European Conservative.

In France, POLITICO Brussels notes, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) also holds a commanding lead. Now led by Jordan Bardella — effectively the party’s presidential candidate after Le Pen was barred from running in March—RN polls at around 33 per cent, well ahead of the united left’s New Popular Front on 21 per cent and President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance on 15.5 percent. A June 2025 Odoxa–Mascaret barometer for Public Sénat found both Le Pen and Bardella rank highest in public favourability — each garnering 36 percent favourable opinions.

An April Elabe poll also placed RN first for the 2027 presidential election, projecting Bardella at 31-35.5 percent in the first round.

Across the Channel, the political landscape in the United Kingdom is also shifting. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has overtaken both the Labour Party and the Conservatives in opinion polls. In the local elections of May 2025, the party achieved an estimated 30 percent national vote share (PNS)—surpassing the combined national votes of the two major parties—which marks a milestone not seen since the start of PNS tracking and could potentially signal a fundamental change in the long-standing two-party system in Britain.

What’s Driving the Right-Wing Surge?

Over the past two decades, Europe’s political landscape has been transformed. What seemed unthinkable just fifteen years ago—that formations of the so-called “New Right” would become the leading political force in voting intentions across several countries — is now a reality. The European Conservative sought to answer the question of what is driving this.

First and foremost, mass, uncontrolled immigration has set off a Europe-wide revolt. Fears of cultural loss and EU overreach are driving calls to take back sovereignty and close the borders. Rising crime, growing lack of safety in once peaceful neighborhoods, and an increase in offences such as sexual assaults have deeply resonated with an electorate that finds no effective responses from traditional parties.

Economic and demographic factors add to this discontent. Since the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, Europe has been plagued by uncertainty: inflation, loss of purchasing power, unaffordable housing, job insecurity, and a future that makes it difficult to start a family or secure one’s prospects. Many citizens feel they have no control over their own destiny and that political elites remain detached from their real problems.

With no strong leaders and the old guard running on fumes, these movements are filling the gap. The post–Second World War system—with clearly defined blocs between moderate conservatives and social democrats—seems to be in its final stages and unable to respond to today’s challenges, partly because both sides have become virtually indistinguishable.

Efforts Underway to Shut Them Down

However, popularity does not guarantee access to power. While Marine Le Pen’s RN has never led the first round of a presidential election, it has made repeated run-off appearances—only for rival parties to unite to keep her from the Élysée Palace. Even after topping the first round of the 2024 legislative elections, the RN was again blocked from power by a broad anti-Le Pen alliance.

A similar situation occurs in Germany, where the AfD is isolated by a “firewall” where other parties refuse to enter coalitions with it. In the UK, although Reform UK leads in the polls, the first-past-the-post electoral system has until now made it difficult to convert that support into seats. The FPÖ is well placed in Austria, but can only govern if other parties agree to work with it. We have already seen how, despite winning the most votes in previous elections, the establishment parties eventually formed a government to keep them out.

We have already seen how, in previous elections, the so-called establishment parties ultimately formed a government to keep them out.

The paths for these forces to govern boil down to two scenarios: an overwhelming victory that forces centrist parties to negotiate with them, or an outright majority, which, for now, seems unlikely in most countries.

Even so, their political impact is evident: they shape agendas, force debates, and push traditional parties to harden their stance on immigration, crime, or national sovereignty,

– the analysis adds.