Estimates from the Spanish government regarding the impact of mass regularisation of illegal migrants significantly underestimate the actual figures, according to a police report. Spain's socialist government, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, is preparing to launch one of the largest migrant regularisation programmes in recent European history, which will grant residency and work permits to several hundred thousand illegal foreigners.

While the official stance suggests that the measure will benefit around 500,000 migrants, an internal police assessment warns that the real number could reach 1.35 million, posing a risk of creating a strong pull factor within the Schengen Area.

More than one million migrants could arrive in Spain (Photo: AFP)

The extraordinary regularisation, approved by royal decree at the end of January 2026, applies to foreigners residing in Spain before 31 December 2025, who can prove at least five months of residency (or who have applied for international protection by that date) and have no criminal record. Successful applicants will receive a one-year residency and work permit, valid nationwide and across any sector. Applications are expected to open in April and close at the end of June 2026, according to the Brussels Signal news portal.

Elma Saiz, the Minister of Migration, described the policy as a pragmatic step that acknowledges the economic contributions of migrants, reduces informal labour, and strengthens Spain’s welfare state amid workforce shortages and demographic decline. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez framed the initiative as both a moral obligation and an economic necessity.

However, a leaked „risk analysis” from the National Immigration and Border Control Centre (CNIF), part of the Spanish national police, paints a much more alarming picture. According to a document published by the news portal El Confidencial, it is likely that between 750,000 and one million illegal residents will apply for the extraordinary regularisation, with an additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers also eligible to apply.

In the most conservative scenario, the total could exceed one million, potentially reaching 1.35 million. The report also highlights that the lenient criteria, combined with Spain’s perceived permissiveness, could trigger secondary migrations. The police analysis notes that Madrid’s announcement has resonated strongly, particularly in Latin America, where it is interpreted as a „very relevant pull factor” in the countries of origin.

The CNIF has compiled extensive material from social media and the so-called dark web, providing information in multiple languages on how to legalise residency in Spain. At the same time, the authorities emphasise the lack of internal border controls and the free movement of people across the 25 EU countries in the Schengen Area, predicting secondary migrations from other Schengen countries.

Estimates suggest that an additional 200,000 to 250,000 illegal migrants could head to Spain each year from other Schengen countries due to the prospect of rapid legalisation.

The discrepancy has sparked fierce criticism from opposition parties and conservative media. The centre-right People’s Party accused Sánchez of underestimating the scale of the situation to evade other debates, while warning of overloaded public services and a dangerous „pull effect.” Right-wing media highlight police concerns, potential security gaps, and the administrative burdens on immigration offices.

Some estimates indicate that Spain’s illegal population was around 840,000 at the beginning of 2025, predominantly from Latin America. The report further states that the announcement has shaped an international image of Spain as a more lenient country towards illegal immigration, particularly in Latin America, risking additional pull factors. This pull factor has already been evident in the Spanish enclaves of Melilla and Ceuta, as well as the Canary Islands, where the number of arrivals has surged, as noted by Spanish migration expert Rubén Pulido.

Santiago Abascal, leader of the Vox party, has also sharply criticised the policy, stating: „The tyrant Sánchez hates the Spanish people. He wants to replace them. That is why he intends to create a pull factor with a decree to accelerate the invasion. It must be stopped. Deportations, expulsions, and emigration.”

🇪🇸🇮🇳 Hundreds of illegal immigrants line up to be regularized at the Indian Consulate in Barcelona.

The line goes right around the block. pic.twitter.com/hD1UCqs51c

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 13, 2026