The White House has released an updated national security strategy that paints a bleak picture of Europe. The document warns of a looming “civilisational decline” driven by falling birth rates, migration, restrictions on free speech and the weakening of national identity. It also suggests that if current trends continue, Europe could become “unrecognisable” within two decades.

„American officials have become used to thinking about European problems in terms of insufficient military spending and economic stagnation. There is truth to this, but Europe’s real problems are even deeper” – as stated in the section on Europe in the White House’s national security stragegy analysis.

The document mentions that Continental Europe has been losing share of global GDP — down from 25 percent in 1990 to 14 percent today — „partly owing to national and transnational regulations that undermine creativity and industriousness.” The analysis highlights that

„this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure.”

According to the White House document, the larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence.

Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less,

– the study declares, adding that as such, it is „far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.”

In terms of the Russia-Ukraine war, the document underlines:

„It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, in order to stabilize European economies, prevent unintended escalation or expansion of the war, and reestablish strategic stability with Russia.”

According to the document, the Ukraine War has had the „perverse effect” of increasing Europe’s, especially Germany’s, external dependencies. Today, German chemical companies are building some of the world’s largest processing plants in China, using Russian gas that they cannot obtain at home.

The strategic analysis further notes that „a large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those governments’ subversion of democratic processes. This is strategically important to the United States precisely because European states cannot reform themselves if they are trapped in political crisis.”

American diplomacy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations’ individual character and history. America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism,

– says the document.

A sweeping statement from the White House outlining President Donald Trump’s „America First” national security strategy says Europe can either change or rot. “The days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over,” the… https://t.co/cakIClInvp pic.twitter.com/mDKRgOBmU6

— The Western Journal (@WesternJournalX) December 8, 2025

The document states that America’s „broad policy for Europe” should prioritize:

• reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia,
• enabling Europe to stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations, including by taking primary responsibility for its own defense, without being dominated by any adversarial power, and
• cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations.

Facts are painful for Brussels

Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, where all EU member countries are represented, was among the first to respond.

“What we cannot accept is this threat of interference in Europe’s democratic life,” he said today at the Jacques Delors Institute. “The United States cannot replace Europeans in deciding which parties are good or bad.”

Later, Mr. Costa also doubled down on X:

“Allies must act as allies. We must respect each other’s sovereignty … What we cannot accept is interference in Europe’s democratic life.”

🇪🇺 The president of the European Council has warned Donald Trump not to meddle in Europe’s politics after the White House threatened to use populist parties to cultivate “resistance” to Brussels.

Read more here ⬇️https://t.co/dyKDWRgflJ pic.twitter.com/tFRK8h6DLQ

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) December 8, 2025

Germany also bristled at the document, which gives the country its own section. Foreign minister Johann Wadephul said Berlin does not need “outside advice”. He added that while the US remains Germany’s most important ally in NATO, the alliance is meant to handle security — not political coaching inside Europe.

In the document, Germany is singled out for its trade with China and its past purchases of Russian energy, a familiar pressure point from the previous US administration.

The same chapter praises “Germany’s patriotic parties”, and criticises what it calls “unstable minority governments”, placing Germany’s economic choices and Europe’s political landscape side by side as part of the continent’s “drift”.