One million Syrians live in Germany. Will they return after Assad's fall? Or are the ruler's supporters now arriving in Germany as asylum seekers?

The number of Syrians living in Germany is likely to pass the one million mark in 2024. While this number stood at 972,000 at the end of 2023, by November this year, around 75,000 new asylum applications had been received from the Arab state. Syria has a population of 22 million. This means that around one in 20 Syrians currently lives in Germany. Many of them are celebrating the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad on the streets of Germany. But will they now return to their homeland, as many of their compatriots travelling to Syria through Turkiye are doing? No such voluntary remigration is yet known in Germany, writes the German Junge Freiheit newspaper.

Currently, 517,839 Syrians receive citizens’ allowance plus housing benefits, costing German taxpayers 3.5 billion euros per year. Another tens of thousands of Syrians receive financial support from taxpayers under the Asylum Seekers’ Benefits Act. The number of recipients stood at 80,730, according to the federal statistic office.

The Asylum Act requires asylum seekers to leave Germany once the reason for fleeing their country no longer applies. In the past, however, hardly anyone had to leave Germany for this reason. And only the next few weeks will show whether their reason for fleeing Syria has indeed ceased to exist. It is also possible that Assad will be succeeded by an Islamist regime, which will trigger new refugee flows.

It is not unlikely that Assad’s supporters are now leaving the country, fearing revenge and political persecution. The latter would grant asylum, even if it would be difficult to prove this in individual cases.

On Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) called it „good news” that Assad had fled. However, he did not say what this implies in the context of migration policy.

„”It is very much likely that the downfall in Syria will initially trigger new refugee movements,”

said Stefan Keuter, deputy parliamentary group leader of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. He called on the German government to take immediate action to prevent further influxes of refugees into Germany. He believes that if Scholz fails do so, it could lead to violent criminals and jihadists entering the country unchecked.