Research reveals a substantial discrepancy between the EU’s reported figures and the actual increase in munitions manufacturing capabilities.

Journalists working with The Investigative Desk platform looked at ammunition production numbers put forward by the European Commission and concluded that Brussels is overestimating the capacity of European ammunition production, the Brussels Signal news portal reports.

Their research indicated a substantial discrepancy between the EU’s reported figures and the actual increase in munitions manufacturing capabilities.

In April, a spokesman for EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell claimed that European arms companies could produce “at least 1.4 million shells” of the 155-millimetre calibre NATO standard by the end of the year. In January, Thierry Breton, EU internal market commissioner, said the EU will have the capacity to churn out at least 1.3 million rounds of ammunition by the end of this year.

In May 2023, the Council of the EU agreed on a three-tier approach intended to speed up the delivery and joint procurement of artillery ammunition with a view to providing 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine within 12 months following the agreement.

In reality, the amount of munitions actually produced has been much lower.

An industry insider described Breton’s estimate as “nonsense”. There is no such thing as a capacity of 1.7 million artillery shells across Europe, they said, adding that the capacity for 2024 is less than half a million. “Possibly 400,000, maybe even a little less,” they said.

Another source put Europe’s total capacity at around 580.000 units per year.

Numbers from the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, seen by The Investigative Desk, indicated European capacity at between 400,000 and 600,000 shells.

There is only a “theoretical possibility” that Europe could produce 1 million shells, Magnus-Valdemar Saar, ammunition procurement director of Estonia told the journalists. These numbers concur with official documents by the Estonia’s defence ministry. In response to questions by the investigative journalists, a European Commission spokesperson said its calculations were based on data from manufacturers, factory visits, discussions with EU Member States and further talks with representatives of the producers.

“We therefore uphold our estimate that a production capacity of 1.5 to 1.7 million can be achieved under realistic operational conditions, in response to received orders,” the spokesperson said.

Relying on inflated production figures — potentially triple the actual capacity — poses significant risks,industry specialists warned. It could lead to flawed strategic decisions and potentially compromise the ability to meet critical ammunition needs for Ukraine and NATO allies in times of urgency.