Eerily similar processes are now unfolding in Germany as have recently happened in the neighboring country.

French President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s future Chancellor Friedrich Merz do not have much time left to save the liberal democracy model. Germany could even become a laboratory for crisis-ridden France, paving the way for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) to claim the chancellorship, writes essayist Sylvain Fort, a former advisor to Emmanuel Macron, in his opinion piece. From a French perspective, the German federal elections evoke a sense of deja vu.

He points out that the victory of the CDU/CSU—roughly corresponding to Macron’s governing center-right bloc in France—cannot conceal its historically mediocre result, just as was the case in France. The decline of the Social Democrats (SPD) mirrors the downfall of the French Socialist Party (PS) and its presidential candidate, Anne Hidalgo, who only secured 1.75% of the vote. Meanwhile, the resurgence of the left—albeit under different circumstances—recalls the alliance between the French PS and the Greens, which saved them from disaster through the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) coalition. Finally, the AfD’s remarkable success strongly reflects the unstoppable rise of the right-wing National Rally (RN) in France.

According to Sylvain Fort, the leadership of both countries is „bleeding from a thousand wounds”. „They lack the conditions for 21st-century success, the contours of which are now clearly taking shape. And they face the same political equation: how to govern with strength when every step risks collapse?” Alice Weidel, the AfD leader, has already stated that the Merz government will be shorter-lived than expected—just as Marine Le Pen toppled Michel Barnier within three months and promised to do the same to Francois Bayrou in the fall.

Political action in both France and Germany is now in the grip of the right wing, laments Macron’s former advisor. He also notes that even Friedrich Merz’s concessions to the AfD during the election campaign failed to stop the right-wing party’s rise in support.

„It seems history has already been written for both our countries. After a phase of political paralysis due to fragmented political forces—a paralysis that only benefits the Right—Marine Le Pen will be President in 2027, and Alice Weidel will be Chancellor in 2029,”

he concludes.