The trial of former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has commenced, but the question of his political future still hangs in the balance. While everyone agrees that his acquittal will mark his return to the political arena, the 'when' and 'how' remain elusive.

Since Wednesday, former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the People’s Party has been facing charges of making false allegations before a criminal court in Vienna. The economic and corruption prosecutor’s office has filed a 108-page indictment. The 37-year-old politician argues that he is innocent.

If the judge acquits him, Mr Kurz is likely to return to political life. But for this to happen, his party, the OVP, must first lose next year’s national elections. And it appears that this may happen, as current opinion polls show the Christian Democrats ten points behind the right-wing Austrian Freedom Party (FPO). An electoral defeat could provide Mr Kurz with an opportunity to present himself again as the charismatic savior of the People’s Party, writes the German Junge Freiheit newspaper.

The trial follows testimony by the former chancellor before a parliamentary committee of inquiry into the so-called Ibiza affair. At the time, the committee was investigating whether Mr Kurz was involved in the management of the Austrian state-owned holding company, Österreichische Beteiligungs-AG (ÖBAG). Mr Kurz denied his involvement.

However, subsequently discovered messages allegedly prove the opposite. In addition, Thomas Schmid – the former head of ÖBAG, who has a dubious reputation for using obscene insults – later cast suspicion on Mr Kurz. The credibility of Mr Schmid, who has since been expelled from the OVP, is disputed in Austria. He is a key witness in the proceedings against Mr Kurz.

The incriminating material and Mr Schmid’s statements led to the chancellor’s resignation in October 2021. The prosecution filed charges two months ago and is now attempting to prove in court that the politician had knowingly and intentionally lied in parliament. In a 20-page rebuttal, Mr Kurz accused the prosecution of fabricating false arguments.

The trial is initially scheduled to last three days. If Mr Kurz is found not guilty, the conditions would be ideal for him to return to the political stage. However, this is unlikely to happen until the forthcoming national elections in autumn 2024, mainly because the current chancellor of the OVP is Karl Nehammer, and the party will not recall him before the elections. Some analysts also suggest that Mr Kurz will wait one more electoral cycle to avoid becoming entangled in legal proceedings during the next election.”