The attack with the Oreshnik missile system was a political show of force from the Russian president.

Russia’s most advanced medium-range ballistic missile system, the Oreshnik, could potentially cripple NATO’s operational readiness in a hypothetical war with Russia, according to American military expert Decker Eveleth.

„The good news is that the Osehnik’s conventional capabilities provide Russia with several non-nuclear options, theoretically reducing the likelihood that the Kremlin would consider deploying nuclear weapons in the early stages of a conflict. The bad news is that the Osehnik’s non-nuclear capabilities mean that Russia will have more opportunities to significantly disrupt NATO operations at the conventional level,”

– writes Eveleth, an analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), in an article for the Foreign Policy portal. According to him, a large-scale Russian attack on NATO’s strategic facilities, such as air bases, command centres, and missile storage sites, using conventional Osehnik missiles could undermine NATO.

„Modern fighter jets – particularly the F-35, which many NATO countries increasingly use as a multi-role aircraft – are too complex to be repaired in the field. The F-35 and similar aircraft are designed to be operated from large, advanced air bases. Due to decades of budget cuts, NATO’s air force has concentrated on only a few such bases, making them particularly vulnerable to missiles like the Osehnik,”

– Eveleth points out. As a possible response to such an attack, the expert suggests that NATO disperse its aircraft across distant locations in Europe to make it harder for Russia to find, target, and destroy them in the event of a conflict.

Russia first deployed the Osehnik missile in the Dnipro region of Ukraine last November, and that same day, President Vladimir Putin stated that the attack was a response to Ukrainian strikes with American and British-made missiles. The attack was a political demonstration, without major military significance, at least according to experts. It is also notable that in December, Putin stated that the Osehnik system could be deployed to Belarus in the second half of 2025.