The centre-right and right-wing parties would wipe the floor with the leftist-liberal formations if the elections were held now in Bavaria.

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has set a new record in Bavaria. According to INSA polling, AfD would rake in 18 per cent of the votes if the elections were to be held now. In the regional elections just over a year ago, AfD won 14.5 per cent of the ballots cast, also a record and a 4.4 percentage point improvement on the previous election. This is significant also because, unlike the eastern part of Germany, which has been marginalised in terms of power in the federal government, Bavaria is a wealthy, heavyweight state with political, economic and social power within the country.

The AfD’s strong showing comes at a time when Bavaria is under increasing migratory pressure. The Christian Social Union (CSU), the governing party in Bavaria, has also jumped to 43 per cent. Although the percentage falls short of historic highs, it is the party’s best result under current leader Markus Soder.

Despite this, many blame the CSU for the migration crisis in the state. The party has become notorious in recent years for using anti-migration rhetoric in official communications, while its actions have systematically facilitated immigration.

With 43% of the vote, CSU could pick and choose among potential coalition partners. Like its sister party the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), CSU has vowed never to cooperate with AfD. At the same time, the conservative Free Voters (FW) stand at 11 per cent and government parties are also suffering in this state. The liberal FDP is barely measurable in Bavaria, along with the Left Party. The BSW, also left-wing, is currently just making it into parliament with 5 per cent. The social-democratic SPD is hovering at 8 per cent, a slight drop from their 8.4 per cent gained in the last regional elections. The Greens took the biggest blow in terms of loss of support.