Presidential election campaign heats up with debates on sanctions and Kosovo

On Sunday, Montenegro will hold its fourth presidential election since regaining independence and the eighth since adopting a multi-party system. Seven candidates are running for the post, and if none of them secures more than half of the votes in the first round, a second round will be held on 2 April. According to analysts,the real question is who will emerge in the second round as a worthy challenger to Milo Dukanovic?

WORLD POLITICS MARCH 17. 2023 14:02

Current president to continue the European path

Montenegro’s presidential election campaign is taking place in a heated atmosphere, due to the grave institutional and political crisis that began months ago. Besides current President Milo Dukanovic, Aleksa Becic, Andrija Mandic, Jakov Milatovic, Draginja Vuksanovic Stankovic, Goran Danilovic and Jovan Radulovic are running for the office.

Since the introduction of a multi-party system in 1990, the president has always been the candidate of Dukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists in the Adriatic country. Filip Vujanovic served three terms in office between 2003 and 2018, before and after Milo Dukanovic was head of state.

Opinion polls suggest that the current president could win the most votes in the first round, but predictions are that this will not be enough to secure a first-round victory. Dukanovic is a pro-European politician who said in a recent interview that his main opponent in the elections is a policy that seeks to make the current stalling of Montenegro’s European accession progress a permanent phenomenon. The head of state called the news about him trying to cut salaries in the public sector a political manipulation. Dukanovic pointed out that through his planned policies his aim is to achieve an average salary of 1,500 euros, but he wants this to be a reasonable and sustainable achievement.

Dukanovic stands by the Kyiv leadership in the Russian-Ukrainian war. On the anniversary of the outbreak of the conflict, he noted on Twitter: This was a year of immense ordeal and suffering, but also of dignified and determined fight of Ukrainian people to defend their country, international legal order, and supreme values of the free world. Montenegro firmly stands with Ukraine and its leadership,” he added.

Mandic the most likely challenger, but there are other rivals, too

Democratic Front candidate Andrija Mandic has the best chance of making it to the second round alongside current President Milo Dukanovic, polls suggest. However, some think that Europe Now Movement’s Jakov Milatovic could also be a likely contender, whose support has significantly increased in the recently months, after a group of protesters tried to prevent him to enter a building where an election event was held. Some tried to hit the politician.

In the evening hours on 10 March, about 50 people tried to prevent Mr Milatovic from accessing the venue before the start of the campaign event, reads the statement issued by police.

„The crowd began to push and shove, and only action taken by the police prevented more serious consequences. Thanks to police efforts, it was eventually possible to hold the rally,”

reads the official statement issued after the incident.

Serbian citizenship thwarts candidacy

Interestingly, Jakov Milatovic appeared in the race as a bit of a fill-in contender. The movement nominating him initially supported Milojko Spajic, but the electoral committee did not approve his nomination, as Mr Spajic holds not only Montenegrin but also Serbian citizenship and residence.

Although the law does not disqualify individuals with dual citizenship from running for the presidency, he was excluded from the race on the grounds that the legislation adopted in Podgorica do not recognise the concept of dual citizenship. Dual citizenship is only recognised if the candidate’s other nationality was acquired before 2006, or if a bilateral agreement exists with the country in question. And this is not the case with Serbia.

Will Mr Dukanovic stay?

Survey findings show that Andrija Mandic may be Milo Dukanovic’s most likely challenger. In his campaign, Mr Mandic offers citizens reconciliation for a better future in Montenegro. Mr Mandic, the candidate nominated by the pro-Serbia Democratic Front, has been pushing for his country to withdraw from NATO for years. In earlier statements, he said he would revoke the recognition of Kosovo’s independence and lift sanctions against Russia. Speaking about the Russia-Ukraine war, he now said that Montenegro must stay out of the war.

The same position is shared by United Montenegro candidate Goran Danilovic, who would also revoke the recognition of Kosovo’s independence and remove punitive measures against Moscow, arguing that this was not the way to bring peace to Ukraine.

„The recognition of Kosovo was done shamefully, trampling on our history and historical honour. It is not because of our fraternal relationship with Serbia that I would do this, but because of us, Montenegro, because Kosovo is also our homeland. However, this step can only be taken by a future government or the majority composing the government,”

Mr Danilovic posted on Facebook.

Survey results published on 8 March by CSI, the Centre for Independent Researchers, indicate that none of the candidates will win an absolute majority in the first round of the presidential election. With 33.8 per cent, Milo Dukanovic can secure the most votes, while Andrija Mandic can end in the second spot by receiving 27.1 per cent of the votes, followed by Jakov Milatovic in the third place with 16 per cent, the poll found.

WORLD POLITICS

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dukanovic, kosovo, mandic, montenegro, russia, ukraine