Processes continuing in the United States if the Democrats remain in power would make matters worse for Europeans.

European public opinion is fiercely arguing whether they would be better off with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris winning the presidential seat. The intensity of the debate is inversely proportional to its actual political relevance. The hope behind the enthusiasm that the transatlantic relationship would continue apace in the old tradition with Harris is not borne out by the facts. The Financial Times warns Europeans not to await Trump’s victory with fear and uncertainty, and not to long for Harris’s victory with nostalgic romanticism and complacency.

According to the German newspaper Focus, America will no longer guarantee Europe’s security in the future. Even if there is no fear that the US will leave NATO under a Kamala Harris administration, Europe will need to fork over a significantly greater contribution of its own. The US still wants to defend Europe – but at Europe’s expense. At the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, Kamala Harris sent a reassuring message:

„NATO plays a central role in global security. For President Biden and me, our commitment to NATO remains sacred and ironclad”.

But at the same time, the US vice president cunningly added that

„Our approach is not based on the virtues of charity. We are pursuing our approach because it is in our strategic interest.”

In Europe, the priority now is for all states to comply with the NATO agreement on defence spending. In 2024, 23 of the 32 NATO allies have achieved this, compared with only five excluding the US in 2021. According to experts, the United States currently accounts for about 66 per cent of NATO’s total defence spending, with $968 billion. European dependence is too costly for America and dangerous for Europe – regardless of who wins the elections.

The stakes and importance of the November elections need to be examined from economic perspectives, as well, experts say. The US has put an end to free trade as we know it and has entered into a systemic rivalry. High tariffs were already imposed on foreign goods back under the Trump administration, which was followed by the Biden administration’s action to impose a 100 per cent tax on electric cars from China. International experts warn that all partner countries must recognise that the US is now acting even more so according to its own interests.

„Joe Biden and his administration have doubled down on mistake upon mistake in recent years, with the economy and ordinary taxpayers, along with many of their European partners suffering the consequences of their bad decisions. Kamala Harris has made no secret of wanting to continue in the same vein as Joe Biden, so those who are hoping for a Democratic victory can expect the situation to get worse,” says Todd Tucker, director of Roosevelt Forward, a research organisation close to the Democrats. In his view, Europeans will have to base trade more on their own interests in the future, „because the child has lost its guardian”.

However, experts also point out that a victory for Donald Trump and the Republicans could at least halt the deteriorating trend – even if reversing it will be more difficult. And on the not negligible Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East crisis, the world would be worse off with a Democratic victory. Of the two vying candidates, Donald Trump is the one suggesting he has concrete plans to end the conflicts.