Upon the request of Poland and the Baltic states, a proposal to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine may reappear on the agenda at the extraordinary NATO summit on Thursday. Western allies have so far been in agreement on rejecting it: Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron also said that a no-fly zone set up by NATO would lead to a direct confrontation with Russia. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the military bloc has a responsibility in not letting the conflict escalate beyond the borders of Ukraine, Hungarian daily Magyar Nemzet writes.

Brussels will host a NATO summit, to be attended by US President Joe Biden, on Thursday and the proposal to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine may – upon Poland’s request – reappear on the agenda. Baltic states and Warsaw keep calling for a peace mission in Ukraine, diplomatic sources told Magyar Nemzet. The paper writes:

Both of those plans floated earlier would lead to an escalation, rather than a de-escalation of the war situation.

Previously, Magyar Nemzet stressed that President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged the implementation of his no-fly zone proposal on a number of occasions recently, as a means to enable NATO to protect the civilian population. However, this would essentially draw NATO into the conflict, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said. He added that NATO would not send ground or airborne units into Ukraine, stressing that a no-fly zone would require NATO to send fighter jets into Ukraine’s airspace, tasked with shooting down Russian planes to enforce the zone.

NATO thinks that the step would “risk a full-fledged war in Europe, involving many NATO allies,

the Norwegian diplomat told participants at NATO’s extraordinary summit. Mr Stoltenberg reiterated this position last week at the summit of defence ministers. He said the alliance has a responsibility in not letting the conflict escalate beyond the borders of Ukraine. Germany, France and the United States are also opposed to the idea of imposing a no-fly zone. At an event in Germany last week, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the establishment of such a zone was equal to direct military confrontation with Russia.

Mr Stoltenberg said he was in agreement with US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron in that a military clash between NATO and Russia should be avoided. It is worth remembering that President Macron visited Ukrainian refugees in France last week, where he said that he considered all Ukrainian demands legitimate, but that the only acceptable solution was for the allies not to get involved in a war with Russia.

Magyar Nemzet also underlined that Poland is currently working on the creation of an international coalition that would lead a peace mission to Ukraine. The idea was also rejected last week by both NATO’s Secretary General and Germany. Citing the message of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the German government’s spokesman said that there is currently no clear distinction between humanitarian aid and combat missions. The peace mission is also expected to be discussed at the NATO and EU summit in Brussels.

Why is establishing a no-fly zone dangerous?

Contrary to popular belief, imposing a no-fly zone is not just a military „half-solution”, but an operation designed to reduce the enemy’s airial superiority, including direct and continuous confrontations. The parties that decide to establish such a zone undertake to eliminate any military object – be it a fighter jet or an air defence system – that operate in that airspace.

At this point, the idea of a no-fly zone is bleeding from several wounds. On the one hand, information so far suggests that Russian forces do not rely on air power to the extent that would justify a blockade, and that the siege of major cities is usually based on artillery strikes. On the other hand, it should also be remembered that Russia and Belarus possess long-range air defence systems on their territories, and without eliminating those the no-fly zone cannot be established. If NATO units were to attack these sites, as well as any objects in violation of the no-fly zone, they would automatically become belligerent sides – bringing the world’s two largest nuclear powers into direct conflict with each other.

The closure of airspace would therefore serve less to protect civilians than to further escalate the conflict, which would then spill over beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Thus, imposing a no-fly zone would be a critical step towards the outbreak of another world war, which would be completely contrary to the interests of both Hungary and Europe.