Ukraine's armed forces suffer more from a shortage of troops than from a lack of ammunition supplies, says military expert Franz-Stefan Gady after visiting the front in the Ukraine-Russia war.

„Reports on the Russia-Ukraine war are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the military situation in Ukraine. The military’s morale remained high but, compared to my visit a year ago, before the counter-offensive began, there is a sense of aimlessness at the moment. Back then, there was one goal to achieve: breaking through the Russian defence lines. At the moment, the troops appear to lack a perspective,” military adviser and analyst Franz-Stefan Gady told the German press after visiting the front line.

„Discussions with high-ranking military officials in Kyiv revealed that defending every patch of Ukrainian territory is their active defence strategy for this year. The front must be held, but there may also be strategic retreats. And an army on the defensive has different motivations than an army on the offensive,”

the expert said, adding that the Ukrainian army needs to fire approximately two to three thousand shells per day to maintain its defence strategy. Currently, Ukraine still has sufficient artillery ammunition for this, although the rate of fire seems to be steadily decreasing. In addition, even if the US aid package is approved, it will take weeks before ammunition supplies reach Ukraine. Franz-Stefan Gady points to a shortage of personnel as the main problem.

„It’s the most difficult problem and one that cannot be solved right away. It will take months before new troops can be sent to the front and it’s unlikely that they can be trained before the end of the summer. The soldiers must be adequately trained because deploying poorly trained troops increases the risk of high losses, and reduces motivation and combat effectiveness, as shown by the counter-offensive last year. However, we in the West share responsibility for this personnel shortage,”

the adviser said, suggesting that Western troops could soon arrive to help in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Franz-Stefan Gady also pointed out that the Russians have managed to keep their numbers stable and are able to recruit tens of thousands of soldiers every month, offsetting losses and ensuring that troops do not lose combat effectiveness. In addition, the Russians face no problems with the supply of artillery ammunition.

„I see no real problem for the Russian armed forces this year or until the first half of 2025, as long as there are enough reserves. Their bigger problem is the lack of equipment, especially armoured vehicles,”

the military expert told the German press. In his view, the offensive capability of the Russian armed forces will increase in the coming months unless they make some grave operational or strategic mistake.